Fat Tails:

It has been bought to my attention that I have not incorporated comments by readers of previous posts, that is indeed a sorry state of affairs since some of them are trite and very relevant.

I received the following in response to my post about  Professor Lomberg and his take on Climate change.

I’m a geologist with 50 years of experience in field work – mainly exploration and development of metal deposits and high-temperature (volcanic-derived) geothermal resources. I know hundreds of other geologists. All of us are very familiar with Mother Nature — who has taught us a few billion years of earth history. I don’t know any experienced geologist who believes the hijacked science propagated by IPCC. More carbon dioxide in the air will mean richer crops and stronger forests. Sea level and atmospheric temperatures will continue to cycle as they always have.

I have included this blast now because it is relevant to my rant that once more concerns bent statistics or funny numbers that are used by proponents to advance or discredit other people’s ideas. I have in mind a lesson I learned in theoretical statistics many years ago that uses a bell curve to plot the frequency of certain events like floods, or, in this case lets use snow events, such as experienced in New England and Atlantic Canada this past winter.

During the rampage of hysterical reporting on the events it was mentioned that the snowfall represented a one hundred year event that was  now occurring after less that eighty years, a bad omen that was a result of climate change. 

Trouble with this prognosis is that it has simply no basis in fact. In measuring the likelihood of events such these there are occasions when the curve is bent or stretched to reflect an unusual occurrence. These are called Fat Tails   by scientists and mathematicians because they are unexplainable in the normal course of events or the bell curve.

This does NOT mean that the unusual suddenly becomes the norm. This giant leap of faith can only be justified for the purpose of advancing an agenda in this case to stoke the fear associated with climate change.

We have seen the same thing with Hurricane predictions that have always proved to be wrong. The ocean is warmer therefore there will be more storms Bla Bla. It may well be that the oceans are warmer but the link to storms simply does not exist.

The New England and Atlantic Snow Events were caused by giant “Nor-Easters’ such as described in the wonderful tale of “The Perfect Storm”  They have been happening with regularity ever since the time of the Pilgrims and other early settlers,  and I am sure will continue off and on forever into the future.

 Apparently the  sooth sayers of the  crooked number world believe that they can discredit Mark Twain’s belief that everybody complaines about the weather but do nothing about it, at least in the sense, that would have everyone else believe.  

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